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Understanding FSD (Forecast Standard Deviation) in Property Data

When reviewing property insights—such as median sale prices—it’s important to understand not just the median itself, but how reliable that number is. This is where FSD (Forecast Standard Deviation) becomes valuable.

What is FSD?

FSD stands for Forecast Standard Deviation.
It’s shown as a percentage and represents how much the data points used to calculate the median vary.

In simple terms: FSD tells you how confident you can be in a median value.

How FSD works

Because FSD is a percentage, it’s easy to compare across different areas or datasets:

  • Lower FSD (%) → Less variation → Higher confidence in the median

  • Higher FSD (%) → More variation → Lower confidence in the median

For example:

  • An FSD of 9.8% is considered low, meaning the underlying data is tight and consistent—so you can trust the median value more.

  • An FSD of 25% or higher suggests the data is widely spread, meaning the median is less stable and should be interpreted with caution.

Why FSD matters

Median prices alone don’t tell the full story. Two suburbs might both show a median of $850,000, but if one has an FSD of 9.8% and the other has 32%, the confidence in those medians is very different.

FSD adds essential context by showing:

  • how spread out the sales data is

  • how reliable the resulting median is

  • when you should trust the estimate—and when to be cautious

In summary

FSD (%) is your confidence indicator.
A low percentage (e.g., 9.8%) signals strong reliability, while a high percentage means greater uncertainty around the median.